Happy Holidays

Happy holidays to all my readers – well that’s cheered up a handful of folks on the internet!

Now but seriously – happy holidays to the MPs who are off for two full weeks holiday.  Like … SERIOUSLY????!!!!!   For a short while I wrote a blog about Brexit in the lead up to the referendum back in 2016 as I was concerned we’d vote to leave.  I was also amazed at the rubbish campaigns that both leave and remain sides ran.  There were outright lies and mistruths on both sides.  So I had a blog pointing out facts.  As a remainer I still follow some social media with the remain focus and notice a continual stream of facts about how leaving the EU will hurt the UK economy badly – anywhere between 7% – 10% worse off after a decade, that includes the governments own assessment.  I see people pointing out that no country, including North Korea, trades exclusively on WTO rules as it is so detrimental to your own economy.  But I’ve come to realise that facts and figures may repeatedly show this but we voted to leave and that vote for many people was an emotional vote, a heart vote not a head vote.   So trotting all this back out in another referendum debate will do little to sway people.

When we voted to leave I thought that meant that we would simply crash out the EU with no trade arrangements with them or with anyone else and we’d have to renegotiate them over a number of years (decades?).  Again the reason why I voted remain – the EU is far from perfect but much better to be inside and argue reform to allow us to do some form of additional local national trade deals etc. than simply rip up all the agreements and enter into a completely previously untested and untried arrangement.  But then I was told we could have our cake and eat it – remain in someway linked closely to the EU without having to pay into it and to stop free movement (something I’m not against at all btw but seems to annoy a lot of others).

And here we are now.  A deal that can’t get through parliament which is amusing to me.  We’ve established in our own supreme court and the European court that the UK is a sovereign nation which parliament is the sovereign body.  We can leave the EU unilaterally because of that and we could stop the process and remain in the EU with no change of UK rights (we have all the concessions about our own currency, not in the Shengen agreement etc.)  However the deal ties us in this backstop that we can’t unilaterally get out of – I can see my the leavers are so angry.  I’m simply bemused that in “taking back control” we appear to be in a worse position than we were.  However the EU surely wouldn’t tolerate a large country no longer paying in and not accepting free movement (key cornerstones of the EU) whilst actually benefiting from full single market benefits.  Has to be said – that is a far worse deal for them than us and laughable that the stalemate is them refusing to budge on it due to their commitment to Ireland and supporting the the Good Friday agreement.

So a deal we can’t get through parliament.  A PM that has won a vote of confidence in her party and cannot be challenged until Dec 2017.  About 100 days to go until we, most likely now, crash out of the EU with no agreement and we are thrown into chaos.  8% approx of all UK tax income comes from EU financial transactions carried out in the city of London.  Just the loss of that is appalling to contemplate. It is to put no finer point on it a shit show.  I can imagine plenty of employers are now asking various employees to limit their Christmas holidays to a minimum as they plan for the unimaginable position of 30th March – No Deal.  Will planes fly?  Will the ports seize up?  How can they keep their supply and market lines flowing.  How much of the tariffs possibly introduced overnight can they absorb, how much pass on to customers in price hikes etc. etc. etc.  Many will be having a very challenging holiday period – I hope the MPs who could stop all that by having a voting, agreeing a way forward and just for once sticking to it for the good of the country enjoy their roast dinners and two week break.

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About furtheron

Music and guitar obsessive who is a recovering alcoholic to boot
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9 Responses to Happy Holidays

  1. That’s a tight situation you guys find yourself in. But I have no advice or words of comfort. We, here, are preoccupied. One word: Trump. How’d you like to be wrestling with this mess? Other side of the same coin, really.

  2. Elsie Amata says:

    Yikes. Politics around the globe are a mess. As for me, I’m in my own vacation mode. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
    Elsie

  3. Merry Christmas, Graham!
    As EOPS, said we are dealing with our new reality!
    I never could understand what Brixit means for you, so thank you for explaining it more!
    xo
    Wendy

  4. annastk76 says:

    It’s a mess, isn’t it? I agree with you that it was an emotional vote and people just didn’t understand what they voted for/against. I mean, I consider myself fairly á jour with what’s what and have a reasonable grasp on politics and the world, but I honestly don’t understand the ins and outs of the EU and the leave/remain question enough to make a really sound judgment. I honestly couldn’t have cast a vote knowing precisely what that vote meant in reality. I don’t think many people did, actually.

    Anyway, have a great Christmas!

    • furtheron says:

      I think that’s partly my point. Who understands the ramifications of single market vs customs union vs trade deal vs WTO only…..? hmmmm? So it came down to take back control vs project fear.

  5. daisyfae says:

    It’s fear-based, not information and data-based. We’ve thrown out expertise – rejected it. (“We” meaning western culture – particularly in the US and UK). i believe that there are opportunists on both sides of these situations – pushing their scenario (exit, don’t exit) to best optimize their financial gain. It’s always about the money. Someone stands to benefit, so chaos is pushed and we all get clocked along the way – not really sure what to believe.

    Currently, i’m removed from US politics (living with my daughter for a month and a half in Turkey). i’ve started taking a longer view – we will survive this turmoil. i’m not sure how, but we shall. As will the people of the UK. It won’t be pretty, and we will never be the same, but we’ll be able to get back to something less insane..

    • furtheron says:

      I do hope so. You’re correct about ignoring expertise. Measles is killing children in Europe again because some right wing commentators are pushing that they are unsafe…. no data , no proof but now death rates are highest in decades. It’s simply unforgivable that this is happening. Personally…. prosecute the parents for murder is my opinion.

  6. Liz Hinds says:

    They’re scary times. I still can’t quite believe it will actually happen. I keep hoping.

    Allegedly I think MPs use their holidays to do constituency work …

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